The unseasonably hot, unseasonably cold, torrential rainfall, floods, or so scarcity of rainfall that no agricultural production farmers get from their lands are nowadays the clear symptoms of climatic changes and shifts that all humans are now facing on this planet Earth.
These changes may not only pose a threat to the economic, political, food, and agricultural security of the country but also to the very physical and territorial sovereignty and integrity of the country as well.
The increasing shortages or reductions of natural resources due to climatic changes may fuel unending competition between and among the countries of the region. Thus, starting a cut-throat competition of Darwinian nature!
The US National Intelligence Council report (2021-2040) of threats and dangers to the United States does not augur well the impact of climatic changes on national security.
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The analysis may not be only the US specific it touches other countries too, and the climatic effects they would likely suffer from these changes. The interlinking of domestic and global politics and industry has made it impossible for any of them to separate and analyze in isolation.
The rise of 1.5 degrees in temperature is estimated by 2030 would result in the rise of sea level that would likely engulf the coastal areas, cause unprecedented destructive tsunamis, and destroy marine life as well. An economic, social, and political cost that coastal areas and their countries are likely to pay for this climatic change!
The situation is even more complicated when viewed from the paradigm of global politics. The US claims that its decarbonization efforts to control global warming receive a setback from the Chinese consumption of fossil fuel which accounts for 30 percent of the whole world’s carbon emission. While Beijing professes that it would drastically reduce its share of carbon emissions” over 65 percent” benchmarking its carbon emissions from 2005 to 2030, measured and calculated over 25 years span.
Climatic changes are a modern phenomenon that not affect only the industrial, economic, and bio-atmospheric growth of a country but it affects the social, and political fabric of a society as well. Human migration, food insecurity, water shortage, droughts, and civil strife are some of its by-products. International security is now closely woven with it. Geopolitics and climatic changes now could not be viewed in isolation.
Cost of climatic changes for developing countries
The weak and underdeveloped countries are at the receiving end of this impending disaster. Their weak economic and political system makes them an easy and vulnerable target of climatic destruction. For example, Al Qaeda in the Maghreb, North and Northwest Africa, got the opportunity to recruit for themselves due to the worst economic conditions which are furthermore dilapidated by the climatic changes in the region.
More than 1.2 million people were killed in the conflicts mostly driven by the climatic changes in the African continent from 1989 to 2018 (in 29 years period).
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Burkina Faso, a West African country that stands in 184th position out of 191 countries of the United Nations 2021-2022 HDI report faces a severe drought and water scarcity problem due to this climate change that further fuels armed conflicts in this country.
The climatic changes are negatively affecting Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). From 1999 to 2020 more than 312,000 people lost their lives while 277 million people suffered directly from these conflicts in one way or the other way. Latin America and Caribbean forests store 104 giga tons of carbon which are ruthlessly cut down by the timber mafia endangering the very biodiversity in these forests. What would be the temperature rise if these 57 percent leftover forests are cut down by humans?
The Brazilian Amazon forests are cut down and illegally smuggled out of the country and region by organized criminal’s rickets. This is the reason why the UN launched its Initiative for the Environmental Defenders in 2017 to assist and help those countries who want to protect against the rising violence against environmental activists. Brazil is especially pointed out for violence against environmental activists. Why Climate change is debatable…
The question is,
The question is if the climatic changes are dead sure destructions for all humanity then why there is so much fuss about this doomsday among all men? Why did not they agree to stop or at least try to prevent or reduce its destructiveness?
Some consider this a myth while others strongly believe in its destructiveness.
Critics call it a twist of data and research by unscrupulous scientists for the industrial and business giants. Synthetic meat-producing companies would surely support any measure that would increase their business.
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Whether it is the blame of Methane gas emissions, deforestation, or pasture reduction by these cows. They complain about long sunny spells and hurricanes but at the same time, they urge for the use of solar and wind energy that would profit these industries.
Climate estimates that more than 130 million would be thrown below the poverty line in 2030 due to climate-wrought destruction.
An unbearable cost
Moroccan agricultural experts report a drastic downfall in the agricultural yield of the country due to the water table falling due to climatic changes and increasing rainfall scarcity. They estimate that is a 50 percent decrease in agricultural yields (2023) which is a threat both to national food security as well as a reduction of foreign exchange, they earn from their much-demanded citrus fruit export.
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Pakistan faces an unusual swing in its climate. In the last year 2022, nearly 65 percent of the country was inundated by a flood caused by heavy rainfall. Some parts of the country now have heavy rainfall and hail even in June which is historically considered the warmest month in the country.
Helping weak ones
The UN Climate Conference (COP27) established a Loss and Damage Fund to help the weak and developing countries of the world for climate-related destruction wrought upon them. These countries are paying a cost for the havoc which has been brought upon them by the developed industrial countries of the first world.
The financial analysis of the most 55 climatically vulnerable countries reveals that they would need $525 billion for their recovery from climate-related destructions amounting to 20 percent of their total GDP even calculated. There is a likelihood that the figure may rise to $580 billion per year by 2030.
The US and European Union initially expressed their reservations about the funding of this Fund but later on, they agreed to it. They wanted China to be included in this funding process but Beijing is pointed out by the UN as a developing country.
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Belgium, Denmark, Germany, and European Union have made a symbolic contribution to this Fund. China did not make any pledge for this Fund.
Meanwhile, some of the UN agencies and other developing banks are already providing help and assistance to many countries for this climate-wrought destruction but it does not fall within the purview of this Damage and Loss Fund.
Being the parameters of this Fund is not fully developed yet, it is not clear which country or disaster is liable to claim and receive aid and assistance from this Damage and Loss Fund.